Question 1

Where do these rates come from?

Accepted Answer

The engine uses the RBI USD to INR reference rate stored on IndiaGraphs as daily data points (dataset: USD to INR Exchange Rate - Daily), from April 2022. It does not use the live market spreadsheet that powers Market Trends.

Question 2

Is the number on the plate a live market quote?

Accepted Answer

No. It is the latest published RBI reference rate in that daily series, with the print date shown. RBI publishes this once a working day. If today’s row has not been written yet, you see the previous working day.

Question 3

Why does the daily sample start in April 2022?

Accepted Answer

That is the start of the daily RBI series on IndiaGraphs. Yearly FY averages go back much further and are used only for long-term CAGR. They are not mixed into the transaction buffer. This is not a 40 year daily stress test.

Question 4

What does 95% protection mean?

Accepted Answer

Of all comparable historical windows of the same length, 95% had an INR cash-flow loss at or below this buffer. Favourable windows count as zero loss. It is coverage of history, not a probability that the next deal will be safe.

Question 5

How is a window matched?

Accepted Answer

Horizon is calendar days. Settlement is the first RBI observation on or after start plus H days. Weekends and holidays are not filled in. If that match is more than 5 days late, the window is dropped.

Question 6

Why is the exporter buffer often smaller than the importer buffer?

Accepted Answer

The April 2022–present daily sample is a period of a generally weaker rupee. Importers are hurt when USD/INR rises; exporters are hurt when it falls. In this sample, fewer windows are adverse for exporters, so the 95th percentile export loss is lower.

Question 7

What is the risk score?

Accepted Answer

It is 0.55 times transaction exposure (the recommended buffer), plus 0.25 times horizon volatility, plus 0.20 times the current regime, flipped for import versus export. It is a 0–100 index, not a probability of loss.

Question 8

Can I use my own USD/INR rate?

Accepted Answer

Yes, under Advanced. Historical risk still uses RBI daily history. Only this deal’s cash flows use your rate.

Question 9

Is this hedging or financial advice?

Accepted Answer

No. It prices a specific transaction off historical RBI prints. Past moves do not predict the next H days. It is not a hedge, a forecast, or a recommendation to buy or sell currency.

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